Tuesday, June 14, 2005

The Government Could Fall Tonight

Tonight at around 10 Eastern time the House of Commons will vote on third reading for Bills C-43 and C-48, otherwise known to those of you who aren't political nerds like me as "The Budget." All budget votes are of course votes of confidence which means the government could fall tonight and we could be into a summer election campaign with a vote probably coming July 12th.

I'm setting the odds of this happening at 60-40 in favor. Because of this I've raised the Armageddon Threat Level from Yellow - Solberg to Orange - Ablonczy until the vote has ended, as we all know in an election crazy things can happen. I think that if it does happen it will either be an accident or it will be the Liberals throwing it. Taking a look at the polling numbers it looks awfully good for the Liberals right now, possibly as good as it's going to get. This would be the chance to get an election on their terms, while their only rival for government status is in disarray and being blamed for the summer campaign, also it could be fought without the cloud of the Gomery report hanging over their head. They may see this as their best chance to get a more stable foothold in parliament. Based on what we're seeing right now it would either work out to be a Liberal majority or a Liberal-NDP coalition. The NDP are gaining on the Tories, and some polls even have them leading them in vote-rich Ontario. If this election happens it is entirely possible the "anti-liberal" vote could split between the NDP and the Tories allowing the Liberals to gain enough seats for a razor thin majority, which is good news for anyone with a brain.

I'll be watching the vote tonight and will update the site with its result once it has concluded.

2 comments:

Pete said...

I'd prefer, I think, a Liberal-NDP coalition to a Conservative minority and a Liberal majority, of whatever size.

HisHighness said...

Well I'd perfer putting a gun in my mouth to a Conservative anything but for me Liberal majority is where it's at. I'd perfer a 307 seat Liberal Caucus with Steven Harper or Monte Solberg being that one humiliated opposition MP. A Liberal-NDP coalition would suck, but it would still be better than what we have now, the Conservatives weild too much power and the Liberals not enough.