Showdown On The Rock

Today's byelection in Labrador is the most important federal byelection in recent memory. Usually byelections aren't really that much more than midterm reports of the government in power, this one is much more than that. It could literally shift the balance of power in the House of Commons. Before today's vote the Liberals hold 132 seats (133 if you include the speaker, who as we've seen only votes to break a tie) The Conservatives hold 98, the Bloc 54, the NDP 19 and there are 3 independants: Chuck Cadman, David Kilgour, and Carolyn Parrish. Parrish has said she would support the government on confidence motions; no doubt trying to get back in to the party. Cadman voted with the government because his constituents told him they didn't want an election, and there is very little reason to believe they would change their minds before Gomery. And Kilgour already voted against the government once so there is little to suggest he wouldn't do so again. so that makes the totals look like this:

Liberals 132 + NDP 19 + Parrish 1 + Cadman 1 = 153
Conservatives 98 + Bloc Quebeccois 54 + Kilgour = 153

So as you can see, the Labrador seat is crucial. If the Conservatives were to win it they could essentially force an election at any of their opposition days.

However I would be shocked to see this seat go anything but Liberal. It's gone Liberal every time save once.